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Chapter 3
Progress and Priorities

3.1 To set the United Kingdom on a more sustainable track, we have to know what we are aiming for, and identify priorities for action. And we need to pick out areas where integrated thinking can pay the biggest dividends.

Using indicators

3.2 Sustainable development objectives are broad. To deliver them, we must focus on specific issues. One way to do that is through indicators. They help to identify areas for action and connections between them.

3.3 The Government has revised the national set of sustainable development indicators produced in 1996.¹ The new set of about 150 indicators is referred to throughout this Strategy, and will be at the core of future reports on progress. Some remain from 1996, but the Government has made changes, in particular to reflect social issues. A publication explaining the indicators in more detail will be issued later in 1999.

3.4 An important new element is a subset of key headline indicators, intended to focus attention on what sustainable development means, and to give a broad overview of whether we are achieving a 'better quality of life for everyone, now and for generations to come'.

3.5 The Government launched a consultation on proposals for 13 headline indicators in November 1998.² Over 650 written responses were received, and research was also conducted with focus groups. Almost all those who commented supported the initiative and the general scope of the indicators, although changes to the specific proposals, and additional indicators, were suggested. However, there was generally little consensus of views, and many of the refinements and ideas suggested are more appropriate to, and have been included in, the broader set of indicators.

3.6 In the light of these responses, the Government has reviewed the headline indicators, and concluded that an additional indicator of the level of crime should be added, and that the indicator of social investment should be extended to include investment in all assets. The social investment indicator is retained in the wider set of indicators.

3.7 The Government's aim is for all the headline indicators to move in the right direction over time, or, where a satisfactory level has been reached, to prevent a reversal. Where a trend is unacceptable, the Government will adjust policies accordingly, and will look to others to join it in taking action.

Joining up the indicators

3.8 There are many links between the indicators. For example, the economy will not grow unless we modernise our education system and our infrastructure. We need to think about the location of our housing, as well as its quality, to reduce the need for car travel and to encourage urban regeneration. The links between transport, health and the environment show how we can all too easily reinforce damaging trends. Such links underline the need for integrated policies, rather than tackling issues individually.

3.9 Some responses to the consultation suggested weighting the headline indicators together, to produce an overall 'index of progress'. Another idea was to weight different sorts of 'capital' - the natural environment, man-made capital such as buildings and human 'capital' such as health and scientific knowledge. The Government has not adopted these approaches. One problem is that a combined index depends crucially on the choice of components, and weightings given to individual elements. This is largely subjective: a different choice of components, or of weights, would give different results. Even more important is the difficulty of interpreting a combined index. If the index were going down, we would need to know why, so that we could take the right action. If it were going up, that might disguise a deterioration in important aspects of sustainable development.

3.10 The Government will therefore report on the individual headline indicators, but will also assess the implications of the set taken together, recognising the links between them. It will also consider a future indicator based on surveys of how satisfied people are with their overall quality of life.

3.11 The Office for National Statistics will also continue work on 'satellite environmental accounts'. These aim to link pressures on the environment (such as waste production, pollution of air and water, and use of natural resources) to standard economic accounts, so that their interactions can be analysed.

Messages from the indicators

3.12 Our economy must continue to grow. We need increased prosperity, so that everyone can share in higher living standards and job opportunities in a fairer society. We must close the gap between productivity and incomes in the UK and those in North America and much of western Europe. Abandoning economic growth is not a sustainable development option: to do so would close off opportunities to improve quality of life through better healthcare, education, and housing; to combat social exclusion; to revitalise our cities, towns and rural areas; and to protect and enhance our environment.

Figure 3.1 Total output of the economy (GDP)

Figure 3.1 Total output of the economy (GDP)

3.13 But sustainable development is more than just economic growth. The quality of growth matters, as well as the quantity. Some forms of growth are more sustainable than others. There are environmental limits to some economic activities: processes which result in greenhouse gas emissions, for example. The Government has to set a framework: not to constrain economic activity but to channel it into more sustainable patterns, to make sure that the price of growth is not environmental decline or social injustice. We must achieve economic growth alongside improvements in the other indicators.

3.14 Investment is vital to our future prosperity. In the past, the UK has invested too little - in modern plant and machinery as well as research and development. Investment has not always been of sufficient quality - for instance, large projects that failed to deliver value for money. We also have to invest in 'social assets' such as railways, buses, hospitals, schools, water and sewerage. Both total investment and social investment have been declining as a proportion of GDP. Investment in the UK is relatively low compared with many other industrialised countries: in 1996 the UK invested 16% of GDP compared with, for example, 17% in France, 18% in the US and 21% in Germany.³ Our competitiveness has suffered as a result.

Figure 3.2 Investment in public, business and private assets

Figure 3.2 Investment in public, business and private assets

3.15 Employment enables people to meet their needs and improve their living standards, and makes the best use of human resources. In Spring 1998, the employment rate was about 73% of people of working age. Of those out of employment, many were not looking for work and were relatively unlikely to do so, and there are still too many workless households and long term unemployed people. Providing employment opportunities for all is the single most effective means of tackling poverty and social exclusion. We have to boost skills and competitiveness to provide opportunities for the jobs which are essential to break cycles of poverty and dependence on welfare.

Figure 3.3 Proportion of people of working age who are in work

Figure 3.3 Proportion of people of working age who are in work

3.16 There has been a steady improvement in the proportion of young people gaining formal educational qualifications. But too many still have no formal qualifications on leaving school. Around one fifth of adults have low literacy and numeracy skills. We have to equip people with the skills to fulfil their potential in the knowledge driven society on which our future depends.

Figure 3.4 Qualifications at age 19

Figure 3.4 Qualifications at age 19

3.17 Average life expectancy in the UK is increasing. It compares well with most industrialised countries, although people in the UK do not live as long as those in countries such as France, Italy or Sweden.⁴ And health inequalities exist: on average, men in the lowest social classes die around five years earlier than their counterparts in the highest. We have to improve the health of the population overall, and reduce health inequalities.

Figure 3.5 Expected years of healthy life

Figure 3.5 Expected years of healthy life

3.18 Housing is a key component of quality of life. Poor quality housing causes harm to health, and is often associated with other social problems. Most housing in the UK is in good condition but in England, for example, about 1.5 million homes are judged unfit to live in. We need to reduce the proportion of unfit stock, and improve quality overall - for example its energy efficiency and state of repair.

Figure 3.6 Homes judged unfit to live in

Figure 3.6 Homes judged unfit to live in

3.19 Crime, and fear of crime, continues to be a worry for many people. Dealing with social exclusion and environmental decline will help tackle the causes of crime, alongside measures to strengthen families and tackle drug misuse. Crime imposes economic costs, reinforces social exclusion and can hasten the environmental decline of neighbourhoods. We need to reduce both crime and people's fear of crime.

Figure 3.7 Level of crime

Figure 3.7 Level of crime

3.20 Climate change is one of the greatest environmental threats facing the world. In the UK, emissions of the main gases which cause climate change have fallen slightly in recent years. UK emissions of carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) per head are similar to the European average and half that of the United States, and around twice the average for the world as a whole. We must continue to reduce our emissions now, and plan for greater reductions in the longer term.

Figure 3.8 Emissions of greenhouse gases

Figure 3.8 Emissions of greenhouse gases

3.21 We have to control air pollution in order to reduce risks of harm to human health and damage to the environment. On average, on more than 10% of days air pollution exceeds the no harm levels which are based on expert advice on the effects of air pollution on human health. This figure is too high. The Government, through its National Air Quality Strategy, has set challenging objectives to reduce air pollution and to ensure that air quality continues to improve through the longer term.

Figure 3.9 Days when air pollution is moderate or high

Figure 3.9 Days when air pollution is moderate or high

3.22 Road traffic has risen steadily in past decades. If no action is taken, it could increase by more than a third over the next twenty years. To prevent that, we need to meet people's needs for access and economic progress in better ways. New technologies and cleaner cars will be part of the solution, but new approaches to travel, living and working will also be needed.

Figure 3.10 Road traffic

Figure 3.10 Road traffic

3.23 Nearly 95% of rivers in the United Kingdom are of good or fair quality; in Scotland and Wales the proportion is even higher. There is still room for improvement; in the longer term, we must ensure that pressures such as climate change and rising household demand for water do not lead to an overall deterioration in quality.

Figure 3.11 Rivers of good or fair quality

Figure 3.11 Rivers of good or fair quality

3.24 Populations of farmland and woodland birds are in long term decline, although populations of some other birds, such as open water birds, have been stable or rising. Birds are good indicators of the health of the wider environment, and we must take action to reverse these declines.

Figure 3.12 Populations of wild birds

Figure 3.12 Populations of wild birds

3.25 Sustainable development involves re-using previously developed land in order to protect the countryside and to encourage urban regeneration. The Government's target is for 60% of the additional houses in England to be built on previously developed land or provided through conversions by 2008; elsewhere in the UK the balance may be different. A large increase in households is projected to form in England over the next twenty years. This means that, even with such rates of re-use, creating patterns of development that are more sustainable is a major challenge.

Figure 3.13 New homes built on previously developed land

Figure 3.13 New homes built on previously developed land

3.26 Households, commerce and industry in the UK produce about 145 million tonnes of waste a year. The amount of domestic waste, in particular, has increased steadily. While waste is only a partial measure of resource use, tackling waste is important if we are to achieve the improved resource efficiency essential for sustainable development.

Figure 3.14 Waste arisings and management

Figure 3.14 Waste arisings and management

3.27 The need to look at policies together, in order to make sure that by working to improve some indicators we are not worsening others, is at the heart of this Strategy. That is why, instead of looking separately at the economy, social concerns and the environment, the Strategy is organised in broad themes, looking for example at ways of building sustainable communities and delivering a sustainable economy.

The scale of the challenge

3.28 Attempts have been made to calculate the scale of the improvement in resource efficiency that will be needed to achieve sustainable development. One suggestion has been that economies could double in output while halving inputs (a so-called 'Factor 4' change) in future decades, with bigger improvements in the longer term.

3.29 In some cases, it is evident that there are limits to the amount of pollution we can create without causing unacceptable damage to human health or to the world we live in. Climate change is the most high profile current example. Substantial reductions in our consumption of fossil fuels are likely to be needed to avert catastrophic climate change. The Government's domestic goal of a 20% reduction in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 recognises that the commitments agreed at Kyoto are only a first step; deeper cuts in emissions will be needed over time.

Cleaner growth: doing more with less

global emissions of carbon dioxide amount to about 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person per year; the United Kingdom produces 10 tonnes per person;
the world's population is expected to increase to around 9 billion by 2050, compared with 6 billion today; at the same time, global prosperity, particularly in developing countries, needs to increase;
to combat the threat of climate change, significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be needed: over time, emissions must therefore fall significantly beyond the targets set in the Kyoto protocol. All countries will need to play their part in this. The UK's goal of a 20% cut in its carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 can be seen as a first step in the process;
as economies grow, significant global emissions reductions will require continually greater reductions in emissions relative to economic output, eventually rising to ten fold and beyond;
it is not possible at this stage to forecast what reductions in UK emissions will be required, or by when. But, as an illustration, if the UK economy were to be three times larger around the middle of the next century,⁵ a five fold improvement in the ratio between emissions and economic output would correspond to carbon dioxide emissions falling by 40%.

3.30 Similar assessments can be made in some other cases, looking at the threshold levels at which significant damage is likely - in terms of the impact of air pollution on human health, for example, or the risk to fish stocks caused by over fishing. But some important sustainable development priorities cannot be resolved in this way: for example, the rate at which greenfield land should be developed. And social progress in areas such as education, health and crime are not simply questions of resource use.

3.31 Overall, for the UK to move towards more sustainable development:

We need more growth not less. Although, compared with many countries, the UK's economy is highly productive and our average incomes are high, we have steadily been overtaken by other nations in both respects.
That growth must be of a higher quality than in the past. It needs to be achieved while reducing pollution and use of resources.
Prosperity must be shared more widely and fairly: some parts of the country and some groups are falling too far behind.
Our towns and countryside contribute significantly to our quality of life. We need to make our towns and cities better places to live and work, and to retain the special characteristics of our landscape which we most value.
We must contribute to global sustainable development, in particular for those in extreme poverty.

Headline Indicators

Total output of the economy (GDP)

Investment in public, business and private assests

Proportion of people of working age who are in work

Qualifications at age 19

Expected years of healthy life

Homes judged unfit to live in

Level of crime

Emissions of greenhouse gases

Days when air pollution is moderate or high

Road traffic

Rivers of good or fair quality

Populations of wild birds

New homes built on previously developed land

Waste arisings and management

Other Indicator

Satisfaction with quality of life (to be developed)

Indicators of Sustainable Development for the United Kingdom. HMSO 1996. ISBN 0 11 753174 X.
Sustainability Counts, DETR November 1998, 98EP0492.
OECD National Accounts Vol. 1, 1960-1996.
Life expectancy: comparisons with France, Italy, Sweden based on 1995 figures given in the United Nations Development Programme publication Human Development Report 1998.
UK economic growth has averaged around 2¼% per year over the past 30 years. If average growth were to continue at this rate, the output of the economy would increase by over 3 times by 2050.

Updated: 07 March 2005

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